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Tonight · Sat, 10 October 2026

Elan Valley stargazing forecast tonight

Hourly clear-sky conditions for observing: cloud by layer, transparency, estimated seeing, moonlight and true astronomical darkness.

52.267°N 3.583°W ·350 m ·Wales, United Kingdom

NearbyAberystwythBannau Brycheiniog (Brecon Beacons)Merthyr TydfilAmmanfordMore nearby
19
/100
Poor conditions
at peak

Cloud or fog is the strongest score limit at the best sampled time.

Site darkness · peer measure
Threatened dark skyNot multiplied into the conditions score
21.4–21.7 mag/arcsec²

The score describes tonight’s conditions. Site darkness helps you choose what to observe.

See target outlook ↓Planet observing times →
Best months at Elan Valley, Wales →Moonless nights →
Tonight in context · local sky & season

October historically: 1.4 qualifying nights/month on average (2005–2024). Regional cloud and darkness history, not tonight’s probability or a comparison with the conditions score.

A qualifying historical night has at least 3 hours of astronomical darkness and mean nighttime cloud ≤30%. This does not measure steady air or target visibility. Seasonal history →

Saturn: about 7.7h above 20° during this observing night’s darkness. Longest sampled dark-time opportunity among our four planet targets; not a weather ranking. Planet times →

Position calculations use roughly 20-minute samples. Clouds, skyglow and local obstructions still matter. Milky Way timing →

Best window
None tonight
Window quality
—
Astronomical dark
21:00 – 06:00
Moon
New moon, 1%
Transparency at peak
0.18
Seeing at peak (est.)
0.88
Visual limit (modelled)
5.0–6.5 mag
Tonight's limiting factor
Thin high cloud

98% high cirrus. Visual observers shrug it off; long exposures integrate it. What this means →

Also limiting: Transparency. See the guide →

The night, hour by hour

Colour = score · Luminance = everything else
Sky state
Shaded = daylight and twilight  ·  unshaded = astronomical dark
2
2
3
3
1
1
13
16
16
19
15
Score
Low cloud
85%
92%
95%
92%
94%
98%
97%
61%
46%
48%
37%
32%
32%
Mid cloud
41%
38%
26%
20%
1%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
High cloud
13%
2%
6%
56%
34%
82%
92%
91%
96%
96%
98%
98%
98%
Transparency
0.10
0.23
0.10
0.22
0.22
0.24
0.24
0.23
0.20
0.19
0.18
0.17
0.17
Seeing
0.59
0.65
0.65
0.66
0.66
0.72
0.74
0.77
0.81
0.83
0.88
0.93
1.00
Moon clear
down
down
down
down
down
down
down
down
down
down
down
down
down
19
20
21
22
23
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
Inspect

Cloud tracks show clear sky — a longer bar is better. The figure inside each track is the raw measurement.

Score inspectorWhy this hour scored what it did Open peakClose
05 Poor · 19/100
Starting from
100
Cloud
−71
Transparency
−10
Seeing
−1
Moonlight
−0
Darkness
−0
Score
19
CLOUD 98% LOW 37% MID 0% HIGH 98% SUN -23.7° MOON -32.4° / 1% WIND 3 TEMP 7°
Excellent 75+ Good 55+ Fair 35+ Poor 15+ Not worth it Seeing is estimated from surface wind — see how we score.

What can you actually do tonight?

This is GoodSeeing’s decision layer: the same forecast is weighted for your target and site darkness. Planetary work barely cares about moonlight; long exposures can fail on high cloud a visual observer would barely notice. Your choice is remembered on this device and becomes the default for new alert rules.

NO USABLE WINDOW FOR THIS TARGET TONIGHT

Darkness and moonlight dominate. Faint fuzzies need a genuinely dark sky more than they need steady air.

19212301030507
CLOUD NEVER DROPS BELOW 88%
NO USABLE WINDOW FOR THIS TARGET TONIGHT

Seeing is everything and moonlight is irrelevant. Bright targets punch through twilight, so darkness barely counts.

19212301030507
CLOUD NEVER DROPS BELOW 88%
NO USABLE WINDOW FOR THIS TARGET TONIGHT

Tolerates soft seeing, but high cloud wrecks a wide frame and moonlight raises the background everywhere.

19212301030507
CLOUD NEVER DROPS BELOW 88%
NO USABLE WINDOW FOR THIS TARGET TONIGHT

Needs conditions to hold still for hours. Sustained transparency matters more than any single good hour.

19212301030507
CLOUD NEVER DROPS BELOW 88%
NO USABLE WINDOW FOR THIS TARGET TONIGHT

Naked eye, whole sky. Total cloud and moonlight are the only things that count.

19212301030507
CLOUD NEVER DROPS BELOW 88%

Deep-sky visual is your current default.

A darker option

Kerry Dark Sky Reserve

454 km away · Natural-dark sky · 21.7–21.8 mag/arcsec²

3conditions tonight
See the trade-off →
Latest verified night · 2026-10-08

Prediction, meet observation.

All comparisons →
9 matches0 discrepanciesNight-average cloud matched within 0.1 percentage point.
EUMETSAT cloud mask · ~12h referenceThe cloud call matched every sampled dark hour.Cloud only · 9 astronomically dark hours

Recent cloud comparisons · 30 recorded nights →

The next week of nights

Tonight · 10 Oct
19
Poor

Cloud or fog is the strongest score limit at the best sampled time.

MOON 0%
Tomorrow · 11 Oct
26
Poor

Cloud or fog is the strongest score limit at the best sampled time.

MOON 2%
Monday · 12 Oct
0
Not worth it

Cloud or fog is the strongest score limit at the best sampled time.

MOON 6%
Tuesday · 13 Oct
55
Good
MOON 12%
01:00–02:00
Wednesday · 14 Oct
0
Not worth it

Cloud or fog is the strongest score limit at the best sampled time.

MOON 19%
Thursday · 15 Oct
0
Not worth it

Cloud or fog is the strongest score limit at the best sampled time.

MOON 27%
Friday · 16 Oct
62
Good
MOON 35%
01:00–02:00

Open a night for its forecast times. Later forecasts may have wider time steps; missing hours are not interpolated.

Tonight · 10 Oct · forecast times
Sky state
Shaded = daylight and twilight  ·  unshaded = astronomical dark
2
2
3
3
1
1
13
16
16
19
15
Score
Low cloud
85%
92%
95%
92%
94%
98%
97%
61%
46%
48%
37%
32%
32%
Mid cloud
41%
38%
26%
20%
1%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
High cloud
13%
2%
6%
56%
34%
82%
92%
91%
96%
96%
98%
98%
98%
Transparency
0.10
0.23
0.10
0.22
0.22
0.24
0.24
0.23
0.20
0.19
0.18
0.17
0.17
Seeing
0.59
0.65
0.65
0.66
0.66
0.72
0.74
0.77
0.81
0.83
0.88
0.93
1.00
Moon clear
down
down
down
down
down
down
down
down
down
down
down
down
down
19
20
21
22
23
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07

Cloud tracks show clear sky — a longer bar is better. The figure inside each track is the raw measurement.

Tomorrow · 11 Oct · forecast times
Sky state
Shaded = daylight and twilight  ·  unshaded = astronomical dark
22
26
20
1
Score
Low cloud
22%
4%
15%
24%
73%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
Mid cloud
0%
0%
16%
14%
99%
100%
88%
24%
7%
12%
8%
1%
30%
High cloud
73%
91%
79%
91%
91%
86%
91%
98%
92%
76%
73%
96%
93%
Transparency
0.28
0.22
0.19
0.17
0.15
0.10
0.18
0.10
0.15
0.10
0.10
0.10
0.10
Seeing
0.82
0.72
0.64
0.62
0.64
0.63
0.54
0.51
0.47
0.51
0.54
0.62
0.64
Moon clear
down
down
down
down
down
down
down
down
down
down
down
down
down
19
20
21
22
23
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07

Cloud tracks show clear sky — a longer bar is better. The figure inside each track is the raw measurement.

Monday · 12 Oct · forecast times
Sky state
Shaded = daylight and twilight  ·  unshaded = astronomical dark
Score
Low cloud
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
99%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
Mid cloud
1%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
1%
42%
100%
High cloud
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
2%
1%
0%
12%
Transparency
0.14
0.10
0.10
0.13
0.12
0.10
0.11
0.10
0.10
0.10
0.10
0.10
0.13
Seeing
0.58
0.54
0.51
0.52
0.53
0.50
0.44
0.40
0.30
0.33
0.41
0.42
0.36
Moon clear
down
down
down
down
down
down
down
down
down
down
down
down
down
19
20
21
22
23
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07

Cloud tracks show clear sky — a longer bar is better. The figure inside each track is the raw measurement.

Tuesday · 13 Oct · forecast times
Sky state
Shaded = daylight and twilight  ·  unshaded = astronomical dark
55
2
Score
Low cloud
89%
27%
2%
3%
Mid cloud
9%
2%
0%
0%
High cloud
0%
3%
34%
59%
Transparency
0.21
0.21
0.24
0.18
Seeing
0.39
0.60
0.97
1.00
Moon clear
9%
10%
down
down
13
19
01
07

Cloud tracks show clear sky — a longer bar is better. The figure inside each track is the raw measurement.

Wednesday · 14 Oct · forecast times
Sky state
Shaded = daylight and twilight  ·  unshaded = astronomical dark
Score
Low cloud
100%
84%
100%
100%
Mid cloud
0%
0%
0%
0%
High cloud
90%
98%
98%
30%
Transparency
0.53
0.26
0.14
0.13
Seeing
0.57
0.61
0.56
0.68
Moon clear
15%
17%
down
down
13
19
01
07

Cloud tracks show clear sky — a longer bar is better. The figure inside each track is the raw measurement.

Thursday · 15 Oct · forecast times
Sky state
Shaded = daylight and twilight  ·  unshaded = astronomical dark
3
Score
Low cloud
85%
31%
100%
24%
Mid cloud
61%
100%
90%
22%
High cloud
85%
97%
15%
0%
Transparency
0.32
0.14
0.13
0.21
Seeing
0.43
0.53
0.61
0.58
Moon clear
down
24%
down
down
13
19
01
07

Cloud tracks show clear sky — a longer bar is better. The figure inside each track is the raw measurement.

Friday · 16 Oct · forecast times
Sky state
Shaded = daylight and twilight  ·  unshaded = astronomical dark
4
62
6
Score
Low cloud
47%
18%
4%
13%
Mid cloud
12%
7%
5%
0%
High cloud
0%
0%
0%
0%
Transparency
0.40
0.33
0.26
0.20
Seeing
0.50
0.72
0.81
0.86
Moon clear
down
33%
down
down
13
19
01
07

Cloud tracks show clear sky — a longer bar is better. The figure inside each track is the raw measurement.

Planning a trip?

Compare the next eight weekends → · Best months to visit → · Moonless nights →

More nearby locations 8 options · openclose

About this forecast

Exact-coordinate weather, sky geometry and site context.

Full method →20-year baseline →
Sources and scoring details openclose

Conditions for Elan Valley, Wales, United Kingdom are computed from the MET Norway forecast model for these exact coordinates, combined with sun and moon positions we calculate directly. The score weighs cloud cover by layer, atmospheric transparency, estimated seeing, moonlight and astronomical twilight. Site darkness is shown separately, then used only where artificial skyglow physically changes moon contrast, haze scattering, visual limits and target suitability.